7 Remarkable Numbers From Canada’s Housing Market

No doubt real estate has been the saviour of the Canadian economy. Mostly thanks to all of those condo towers and housing developments, the country escaped the worst of the Great Recession.

Since the housing bull market began 20 years ago, the industry has posted some truly incredible figures. Here are the top seven most remarkable numbers from the nation’s real estate market.

1. 150% price increase

According to the Canadian Real Estate Association, the average house in Canada sold for $152,378 in 1998. Today, the mean house price has ballooned to $379,725. This represents a 150% price appreciation over that time frame — one of the best performances in the industry’s history.

2. 7.8x income

As you might expect, real estate prices have handily outpaced incomes. Over the past 15 years, the average full-time salary has increased at a 2.5% annual clip, versus house prices that have grown at a 6.3% annual pace.

Historically, financial advisors recommended spending no more than three times your income on a house. This advice now seems hilariously out of date. Today, the typical Canadian pays 7.8 times their salary to purchase a home.

3. 163% of disposable income

How did this happen? Canadians have opened their wallets and taken on record amounts of debt. According to Statistics Canada, household debt-to-disposable income hit a record 163% this year. That’s approaching the peak levels where the U.S. and the U.K. topped out when their housing bubbles burst.

4. 27 times rent

This debt binge has produced some eye-popping valuations. Today, Canadian real estate is priced at 27 times annual rental income. In certain cities, the figures are even more outstanding. In Toronto, the average home sells for 37 times average rental income. In Vancouver, it’s 60 times annual rents!

This is well outside historical averages. Over the past 50 years, Canadian real estate nationwide traded between 15 to 20 times rental income. According to a recent report from the OECD, the nation’s housing market is about 60% overvalued based on long-term price-to-rent averages.

5. 4.23% dividend yield

High valuations aren’t limited to the residential housing market. In a desperate bid for yield, investors have turned to real estate investment trusts, or REITs, to generate income. This spring, the yield on the iShares REIT Index Fund (TSX: XRE) hit a record low of 4.23%. This is notable because the index historically has yielded between 7% and 8%.

6. 53,000 units

In the Greater Toronto Area there are 171 condo developments and more than 53,000 condo units under construction. That’s twice the rate of New York City — an area with three times as many inhabitants.

7. 13.5% of jobs

A booming real estate market has fundamentally reshaped the country’s economy. Today, residential construction now accounts for 7.9% of Canadian gross domestic product. That’s the highest since 1987.

Today, 13.5% of all jobs in Canada are linked to the construction industry — the highest proportion in 40 years. Compare that to the United States, where only 5.8% of jobs are related to construction.

The Foolish bottom line

It’s hard to argue that the numbers coming out of the Canadian real estate industry are ominous. Much of its impressive performance has only been made possible through ample quantities of cheap debt.

By Robert Baillieul - November 26, 2013

This article is a great informative read and has some very important points for us to consider. 

Hi,

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
November 1, 2013          

VICTORIA, BC–Greater Victoria continued to experience strong home sales during the month of October, reports the Victoria Real Estate Board (VREB). According to the Board’s MLS® System, 512 properties sold compared to 373 in October 2012, an increase of 37.27 per cent. There were 4,322 active listings.

“While we are all very pleased with the October results, we are tempering our enthusiasm,” says Shelley Mann, Board President. “After a slow market for the last half of 2012, we are still climbing back to previous annual sales numbers.”

Today, the VREB and joins the Canadian Real Estate Association and ten major real estate markets in Canada by adopting a new approach to the reporting of trends in residential property prices. Instead of relying on average and median sale prices which are subject to fluctuation, the Board moved to a new system called the MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI). The methodology used by MLS® HPI has been endorsed by Statistics Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the Bank of Canada, Finance Canada and Central 1 Credit Union.

At the heart of the MLS® HPI is the concept of the "benchmark" home, a notional home comprising the most common attributes of typical homes in a given area. Through the analysis of ten years of VREB MLS® sales data, MLS® HPI has defined benchmark homes for Greater Victoria as a whole as well as for each of our regions, districts and neighbourhoods. In each of these areas, MLS® HPI has defined a benchmark home for each category: single family homes, townhouses and condo apartments. Each month, VREB MLS® sales data will be fed into the MLS® HPI to calculate and track changes in the prices of our benchmark homes. 

Benchmark prices are generally lower than corresponding medians and averages.  MLS® HPI estimates the values of our typical homes, whereas medians and averages merely reflect the overall selling prices of the particular mix of homes that sold in a given month.

In a manner similar to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), MLS® HPI maintains a running index of the percentage change in benchmark prices.  Like the CPI, the MLS® HPI assigns an index value of 100 to the benchmark prices at its starting point: January 2005.  By tracking both benchmark prices and index values each month, MLS® HPI will provide a much clearer picture of real estate market trends in Greater Victoria. 

“Past reporting of averages and medians showed flat pricing across the Board’s trading area but MLS® HPI indicates a moderate decline in prices in many markets over the last year,” Mann says. “Benchmark prices are flat month-over-month, and we will be watching very carefully to see where pricing goes.

“With average and median prices, it was often difficult to gauge whether prices of typical homes were rising or falling, but the HPI provides us with exactly this type of information,” she says.

For October 2013, the benchmark price for the Greater Victoria single family benchmark home was $485,400 and its corresponding MLS® HPI index value was 137.2.  (This represents a 37.2 per cent increase since January 2005, when the index was 100). This benchmark price increased 0.15 per cent over the past month and decreased 3.18 per cent over the last year.

At the regional level, the benchmark price for the single family benchmark home in the Core municipalities was $547,800, a decrease of 0.56 per cent over the previous month and a 2.66 per cent decrease over October 2012. In Westshore, the benchmark price for the single family benchmark home was $410,600, a decrease of 0.37 per cent over September 2013 and 4.37 per cent decrease over October 2012. The benchmark price for the single family benchmark home on the Peninsula was $508,700 for September, an increase of 1.22 per cent over the previous month and a 3.56 per cent decrease year-over-year.

There were a total of 274 single family homes sold in September, an increase of 29 per cent over September 2012. September also saw the reporting of 126 condominium sales and 51 townhouse sales in Greater Victoria. Benchmark prices for the Greater Victoria condominium benchmark home and for the Greater Victoria townhouse benchmark home for September $283,100 and $393,100 respectively.

Total Waterfront Single Family Dwellings sold:                      17, up 2 over October 2012

Total Non-waterfront Single Family Dwellings sold:           257, up 62 over October 2012

Single Family Dwellings sold over $1 million:                          16 (1 over $2 million)

For more information on MLS®HPI benchmark prices and index values for September, visit www.vreb.org. Those requiring specific information on property values in their area should contact a REALTOR®. The Victoria Real Estate Board has 1,224 Members.

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Vancouver, BC – October 15, 2013. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,498 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during September, up 43.2 per cent from September 2012. Total sales dollar volume was 55.7 per cent higher than a year ago at $3.49 billion. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $537,458, up 8.8 per cent from September 2012.

"Consumer demand for housing in September was the strongest in four years,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “After declining for most of 2012, BC home sales have increased now for seven consecutive months."

"While a return to a more normal level of demand is good news for buyers and sellers, relatively weak economic conditions and muted provincial job growth will likely limit continued acceleration of home sales over the next few quarters,” added Muir.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 5.7 per cent to $30 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales were up 3.1 per cent to 56,347 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 2.6 per cent at $532,745.

Subject: Hottest Summer For Property Sales In Five Years!

Hottest Real Estate Market in Five Years! PLUS: Sept HOT Property! VICTORIA BC - Summer-time real estate sales numbers were the best they've been in Greater Victoria in five years. There was a total of 1,787 sales in June, July and August. On a monthly scale, total real estate sales in Greater Victoria were up 16.8 per cent in August 2013 over August 2012, the Victoria Real Estate Board reports. A total of 540 properties sold in August "I'm very pleased with the August results. MLS® sales are strong and, with 4,593 active listings in all categories at month end, we remain on the cusp of a balanced market," says Shelley Mann, President of the Victoria Real Estate Board. The BC Real Estate Association defines a balanced market as when the ratio of sales to active listings is between 15 and 20 per cent. At month end, Victoria's ratio for residential properties was 14 per cent. There were 308 single family homes sold in August, an increase of 28.3 per cent over August 2012, while the median price of $529,950 is up less than one per cent year over year from $526,250. There were 125 condominium sales with a median price of $287,000 and 70 townhomes sold at a median price of $415,000. "Overall, pricing remains flat and our provincial economist predicts the trend will continue for another year. That said, the year-over-year median price of condos is up 9.2 per cent and the median of townhomes is up 12.5 percent," Mann says. "This will vary between neighbourhoods, which is why I always recommend that consumers consult a REALTOR® for local pricing. "With interest rates starting to increase, many buyers are locking into preapproved mortgages. These consumers should be purchasing in the next three to four months, so I believe the market will remain steady," Mann says. Total Waterfront Single Family Dwellings sold: 20, up 7 over August 2012 Total Non-waterfront Single Family Dwellings sold: 288, up 61 over August 2012 Single Family Dwellings sold over $1 million: 17 (2 over $2 million) Stats Quick Reference Total Single Family All Areas includes Shawnigan Lake/Malahat, Gulf Islands and Up Island   HOT PROPERTY ALERT ONLY $159,900! Open House Wednesday Sept. 4 @ 4-6 pm @ #204-3363 Glasgow Ave. Yes, there is work to do but at this price you'll have a fabulous, spacious 2 bdrm, 2 full bthrm suite w/in-suite laundry, in a pet friendly bldg. w/no age restrictions, secure underground parking, at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac, on a fabulous bus route, walking distance to Thrifty's, Italian Bakery & shops. Call today to view this exciting opportunity! Call me if you would like to know how the current Real Estate Market affects you or if you know anyone who is looking to buying or selling! You could earn up to $1000! Visit my website or call me at 250-884-3980 Stay tuned for the next Newsletter - Foreclosures. How the process works and how to spot great deals!   Visit my website, www.NewImageHomeSales.com »

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision - September 4, 2013

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. In its accompanying statement, the Bank highlighted that an uncertain global economy is delaying an expected rotation of growth in Canada toward exports and investment. This means that the burden of economic growth will remain on households at a time when most households are deleveraging and looking to slow consumption. All of this adds up to a Canadian economy that will grow below trend in 2013, likely at a rate of around 1.5 per cent. Below trend growth will translate to continued subdued inflation, which the Bank anticipates will return slowly to its 2 per cent target in 2014. As for the Bank's tightening bias, language around the withdrawal of monetary stimulus has been significantly moderated. The Bank anticipates a gradual normalization of policy interest rates as conditions for inflation, growth and household debt normalize.

Rising long-term Canadian interest rates, along with somewhat soft economic growth through the first half of 2013, have taken some urgency out of future monetary policy tightening. In particular, higher long-term rates will further slow growth in household debt via higher mortgage and other key lending rates which will allow the Bank to push increases in its overnight out to late 2014 or early 2015.

Housing Market Picking Up Steam
BCREA 2013 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – August 22, 2013. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2013 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 3.9 per cent to 70,300 units this year, before increasing a further 6.1 per cent to 74,600 units in 2014. The five-year average is 74,600 unit sales, while the ten-year average is 86,800 unit sales. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

"After a marked pull back of consumer demand in 2012, the housing market is now transitioning to more elevated home buying activity,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, the effect of sluggish employment growth this year is expected to spill over into 2014, limiting housing demand to a 6 per cent increase, with total home sales matching the 5 year average."

"The average MLS® residential price in the province has been revised from remaining unchanged to increasing 3.3 per cent to $531,700 this year. A stronger than expected decline in the inventory of homes for sale has created balanced market conditions in the Lower Mainland, causing home prices to align more closely with overall consumer price inflation,” added Muir. The average MLS® residential price in BC is forecast to increase 2.2 per cent to 543,400 in 2014.

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To view the full BCREA Housing Forecast Update, click here.

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