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BCREA ECONOMICS NOW


The Canadian economy expanded 3.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2017, led by an acceleration in household consumption spending as well as a nearly 3 per cent rise in business investment. The latter is a particularly welcome sign for the economy given that business investment had declined in eight of the previous nine quarters.  A build up of inventories, especially in the manufacturing sector was also a significant contributor to growth in the first quarter, but also signals a slowing in the second quarter as firms produce fewer goods and wind down that inventory.

Although the Canadian economy has grown much faster than the Bank's estimate of potential growth for three consecutive quarters, it is not expected that the economy will sustain that level of growth for much longer. We forecast that real GDP growth will fall back to an average of 1.5 per cent quarterly growth for the remainder of 2017. However, the strong start to the year means that annual growth for this year is likely to register close to 2.5 per cent, the strongest economic growth in three years. Despite faster growth, a significant amount of slack remains in the economy and there is therefore very little pressure on inflation. Without a signal that inflation is going to push higher, the Bank will remain sidelined at least until early 2018 when it expects remaining slack in the economy will be eliminated.

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BCREA ECONOMICS NOW


Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - May 24, 2017



The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is holding the target for its overnight rate at 0.5 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that inflation is broadly in line with the Bank's projection, though intense retail competition is pushing inflation temporarily lower.  The Bank also noted that the tightening of mortgage regulations implemented in the Fall of 2016 have yet to have a substantial cooling effect on markets but it does expect those measures will contribute to a more sustainable debt profile for Canadian households.

Although the Canadian economy has expanded well above the Bank's estimate of potential growth for three consecutive quarters, including a first quarter that is tracking at close to 4.5 per cent growth in real GDP, the Bank is not optimistic that the economy will sustain that level of growth for much longer.  Moreover,  despite faster growth, a significant amount of slack remains in the economy and there is therefore very little pressure on inflation. Without a signal that inflation is going to push higher, the Bank will remain sidelined at least until early 2018 when it expects remaining slack in the economy will be eliminated.

For more information, please contact: 

Cameron Muir Brendon Ogmundson
Chief Economist Economist
   
   
Email: cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca Email: bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca
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SELLER'S REMORSE NOT REWARDED

Too often this column focuses on a REALTOR®'s error or mistake resulting in the REALTOR®'s censure by either a court or the Real Estate Council of British Columbia. Such columns, while concentrating on the negative aspects of practice, are essential in providing REALTORS® with an understanding of the appropriate standard of care and duty expected of them in their day-to-day practice. With that in mind, it is refreshing to report that not all practice is viewed through such a negative lens.

In a recent decision of the BC Supreme Court,1 a former client blamed their listing agent for not obtaining them substantially more money from the sale of their house. They had listed their house with several REALTORS® with no success. The sellers chose their last REALTOR®, whom they eventually sued, in large part because she was the listing agent for a property across the street.

The sellers listed their property for $10,000 less than the property across the street. They received an offer close to $100,000 below the listing price. They alleged that the listing agent "pressured" them into accepting the low offer. The listing agent deposed that she had told the sellers it was up to them whether to accept, reject or counter the offer. Although not known to the sellers at the time, the house across the street sold for almost an identical amount. After accepting the offer, the sellers learned of another house in the neighborhood that had sold for almost $225,000 more than theirs. The sale of this neighboring property was entered into a week before the sellers accepted their offer, although that sale did not become unconditional until some two weeks after the sellers had accepted their offer. The sellers deposed that they would not have accepted the offer they received had the listing agent advised them of the other sale.

The sellers claimed that the listing agent was negligent in not providing them with a comparative market analysis that would have disclosed all the properties in the neighborhood, negligent in not discovering the pending sale of the property that sold for close to $225,000 more than theirs, and in a conflict of interest by concurrently listing two competing properties across the street from each other.

The Court dismissed all of the sellers' claims. While agreeing that the listing agent owed a duty of care to the sellers, the Court found that the sellers had not provided any evidence as to what that standard of care might be and, as such, had not established that the listing agent had breached the standard of care.

On the issue of the alleged conflict of interest, the Court concluded that there was no authority for the proposition that acting as the listing agent for two properties in the same neighborhood gave rise to a conflict of interest; if it did, the sellers had expressly waived such conflict, as they were fully aware of the other listing at the time they engaged the listing agent.

The sellers' main complaint was that they were not made aware of the pending sale, which turned out to be close to $225,000 more than the offer they accepted. However, the Court concluded that those details would not have been available to the listing agent until after that pending sale had become unconditional, which was after the time the sellers were considering their offer. In dismissing the claim, the Court concluded that "the defendants did not have a legal duty to obtain the best possible price for the property. Rather, a REALTOR® has an obligation to act in accordance with the applicable standard of care for giving advice on price for a property."

It is not unusual for sellers or buyers, with 20/20 hindsight, to conclude they should not have entered into a particular transaction and to claim that their REALTOR® "pressured them into entering into the agreement" or conversely that their REALTOR® "should never have allowed them to enter into the agreement." It is the REALTOR®'s function to make sure that their client has all pertinent and available information before them, so that the client may make an informed decision. It is not the REALTOR®'s function to make that decision for them.



Brian Taylor
Norton Rose Fulbright LLP

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BC Home Sales Turn Higher, Inventories at 20-Year Low

Vancouver, BC – May 15, 2017. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) that a total of 9,865 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in April, down 23.9 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $7.19 billion, down 25.4 per cent from April 2016. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $728,955, a 2 per cent decrease from the same period last year.

“BC home sales are on an upward trend this spring, led by a sharp increase in consumer demand in the Lower Mainland," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of home sales was over 106,000 units in April, significantly above the five-year SAAR for April of 89,000 units.

The supply of homes for sale declined 17 per cent from April 2016. On a seasonally adjusted basis, active residential listings have declined 50 per cent since 2012 and are now at their lowest level in over 20 years. The imbalance between supply and demand is continuing to drive home prices higher in most regions, further eroding affordability.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 31.8 per cent to $21.3 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 25.0 per cent to 30,757 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 9.2 per cent to $692,220.

 

 

 

Visit my site at www.YourLuckyIrishRealtor.com for further stats, buying or selling tips, and much more.

 

My Best,

Arran

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MLS® property information is provided under copyright© by the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board and Victoria Real Estate Board. The information is from sources deemed reliable, but should not be relied upon without independent verification.