Overnight Leading Rate - Update

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision - December 7, 2016

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is holding the target for its overnight rate at 0.5 per cent. In the press release accompanying the interest rate decision, the Bank noted that uncertainty in the global economy is undiminished in recent months while Canadian economic growth is evolving as anticipated. On inflation, the Bank cited that although CPI and core inflation have picked up, both measures remain below the Bank's 2 per cent target. 

With long-term interest rates jolted upward by the US election, the Bank of Canada is likely content to keep its overnight rate on hold at 0.5 per cent over the next year.  That said, the stark unpredictability of the incoming Trump administration on everything from trade to taxes to financial markets means that risk in the economy is tilted to the downside.  Therefore, there remains the potential for a rate-cut by the Bank of Canada should economic conditions and the outlook for inflation deteriorate.